In his last three presidential races, Trump first rallied white working class voters in the Republican caucuses and primaries. He appealed to them directly, took their grievances on as his own, treated their enemies — the GOP establishment, illegal immigrants, reporters, minorities, and liberals — with disdain if not disgust, and promised to be their champion against the powers that be.
The Republican white working class had had enough — of joblessness in the Great Recession, opioid addiction killing their friends and family members, disrespect by the elites and local poobahs, and being screwed over by the agencies of their state and national government. And they swarmed to Trump.
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and ten other GOP wannabes never had a chance in 2016. Neither did Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramasway in 2024. Why? Because none of them ever met a white working class voter they liked. But Trump pretended “to love the poorly educated.”
After winning a plurality of Republican primary voters — his steady 30 to 35 percent of the GOP’s white working class voters — he did the same thing in two, now three, general elections. He refocused his attention on white working class Democratic voters. Same strategy, similar results.
So, in the summer and fall of 2024, he should do so again, but with a devious twist.
a. Focus on the white working class Democratic voters, including those with Iberian Peninsula ancestries — voters with ancient ties to Spain and Portugal. And appeal directly to those populations in order to prove that they, too, deserve R-E-S-P-E-C-T.
b. According to the 2020 US Census conducted during the Trump Administration, the “Hispanic or Latino population grew from 50.5 million (16.3% of the U.S. population) in 2010 to 62.1 million (18.7%) in 2020. YET the “White alone” adult population (age 18 and over) went from 74.7% in 2010 to 64.1% in 2020. In contrast, their “Multiracial adult” population increased from 2.1% in 2010 to 8.8% in 2020.”
c. Pew Research Center (1/10/24) suggests that the number of Hispanic and Latino voters will have doubled from 2020 to 2024, from 7.4% to 14.7% of total turnout. Or, using the 160 million turnout from 2020, it grew from from 12 million to 23.5 million voters in but four years! Thus, registering and turning out younger Latino and Hispanic citizens who have turned 18 becomes a priority for the Trump campaign.
d. Pew also noted the states with the largest shares of Hispanic and Latino “eligible voters” — birthright citizens over 18 years of age — are California (42%), Texas (47%), Arizona (25%), Nevada (22%), Florida (22%), Colorado (17%), and New Jersey (16%). While only two of them — Nevada and Arizona — are battleground states, the other five states contain tens of millions of Hispanic and Latino voters that were once part of the Biden-Harris team’s 2020 coalition.
e. Flip the 59/41 percentage split that the Biden-Harris team won among Hispanics and Latinos in 2020. Trump’s campaign rallies, paid television, and social media ads will focus on where they live in those top 25 media markets. (See Scenario #1) And Trump will urge his white working class voters, Democrats and MAGA Republicans alike, to embrace his new found allies within the Hispanic and Latino communities and treat them with R-E-S-P-E-C-T.
f. Draw a line between recent immigrants and those who arrived decades or even centuries ago. In Vandalia, Ohio, a nearly all white suburb of Dayton, Trump began making that all-so-divisive distinction. He claimed, “In some cases they’re not people, in my opinion.” Then he used the “White alone” dog whistle: ”No-one has been hurt by Joe Biden's migrant invasion more than our great African American and Hispanic communities.” And he will keep making that distinction.
A Plausible Democratic Counter-strategy
The weak point of Trump’s “white alone” strategy is evident to all. The only person Trump truly cares about is himself. So he will say and do anything to promote his one and only own cause: himself.
And that leaves the families of white working class Latino- and Hispanic-Americans living in fear. Many of those families are multi-generational, and are residing under the same roof. The babies and grand babies may be citizens. So may their parents or one of them.
But what happens when local law enforcement officers or the state’s National Guard come knocking? Are grandma and grandpa safe? Are mom’s papers in order? Will the family be torn apart? And for what?
So Trump can roundup and deport 15 million illegal immigrants? And put them in camps surrounded by concertina wire? Before shipping them off to a country they have not seen in a couple decades?
The counter-strategy arises out of that Pew Research Center report discussed above. The largest shares of Hispanic and Latino “eligible voters” — birthright citizens over 18 years of age — are California (33%), Texas (32%), Arizona (25%), Nevada (22%), Florida (22%), Colorado (17%), and New Jersey (16%), New York (15%), and Illinois (13%) and New York (15%). Seven of those states are mega-Democratic states and two are battleground states.
So it is imperative to “flood the zone” with high-profile Latino- and Hispanic-American leaders from business, labor, academia, entertainment, sports, and government. Let them explain This is who Trump is… to them. This is what Trump has done… to them. This is what Trump says… that scares them. And then have them ask but two questions of their audiences. Can you risk your family’s integrity? Can you believe his lying eyes?
Use their best soundbites and video clips to populate their social media accounts and the accounts of groups and organizations that they lead. Create a “table” to coordinate the messaging to those nine states filled with eligible voters. Encourage them to register as voters, turnout to vote, and fight to protect their families.
Use the prime time hours of the Democratic National Convention to spotlight those high profile Latino- and Hispanic-American endorsers. Make certain the Democratic Platform addresses their communities’ hopes, aspirations and dreams. And use the acceptance speeches as a direct call for help, help to build a Coalition of 100 Million, help expand the potential of the American Dream.
Place early GOTV ads on Spanish language television, radio and social media. California and Colorado vote-by-mail ballots land on September 30 and October 7th, respectively. But by then, absentee ballots will have started arriving in the mailboxes of voters who requested them in Pennsylvania (9/9), Wisconsin (9/12), Minnesota (9/13, Texas, Virginia, New Jersey and Michigan (9/14), Illinois and Florida (9/19), Maryland (9/26), New York (9/27), Connecticut (9/29), all Ohio (9/13) — all are states with significant, if not decisive, levels of Latino- and Hispanic-American eligible voters.
2024 is a five alarm fire for the American Dream, our Republic and our democratic traditions. Consequently, individually and institutionally, we must respond early and often. Waiting until the last couple weekends simply is unacceptable, if not unconscionable.
For those Latino- and Hispanic Americans will be deluged by the same kind of “dark ad-verts" the Trump campaign used on Facebook in 2016. MAGA voter suppression efforts have gone viral and, consequently, so must Getting Out Our Vote in these all-so-vital communities far from those two battleground states.
To be continued… on Saturday, July 13th … Create enormous cognitive dissonance