Plurality Threshold Assessment 10/18/24
FULL FORCE OF FUTURE FORWARD
Today’s projected Electoral College Vote is: Harris-Walz 227… Trump-Vance 218… and Toss-Up 93.
BUT, BUT there are a couple of numbers that you should memorize. Future Forward, the Harris-Walz aligned superPAC, is sitting on $700 million dollars. Or $100 million per battleground state. That’s $5 million per state per day for television and social media ads!!!Harris-Walz is above the Plurality Threshold in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina. If those leads are protected, then their 50 ECVs move from Toss-Up to Harris States and — wait, wait — for 277 ECVs and the WIN!!!In Wisconsin and Nevada, both Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance are below the Plurality Threshold But Running Neck and Neck. That’s actually one of my categories! And Trump leads by 3% in their most recent polls. But neither state is a done deal. So if Future Forward wants to blow the doors off the Electoral College, then bet another hundred million on Nevada and Wisconsin. That ought to make the final tally 293 ECVs to 245 ECVs. And if Future Forward cannot spend all of its $700 million, I could use what ever is left over. Not on me personally, but to increase the raw vote margins in some of the sixteen mega-Democratic states. You see, California is running 903,000 votes behind its net margin in 2020, Massachusetts is trailing its net margin by 270,000 votes, Maryland and Oregon are, too, but by only 218,000 votes. New York, Illinois, Colorado, and Minnesota are matching also matching what they did in 2020, roughly, but that’s not good enough to soundly defeat Trump-Vance in the Popular Vote. Oh, and if Future Forward can spare a few more dimes — say, $10 million per state — down ballot Democrats could use some love in Texas, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. And maybe in New Jersey and Virginia but there are no recent published polls in those two states.I know its an embarrassment of riches. But wouldn’t y’all prefer to win the Electoral College Vote, the popular vote by more than Biden-Harris did, retain control of the Senate, gain control of the House by more than a couple of votes, and pick up a few governors mansions (for Tim Walz) and some state senate and assembly seats? You ought to be hearing the roar of an avalanche by now. That’s the sound of 85 million Americans going to vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. And, if spent wisely, that $700 million will add mass and speed to that avalanche’s momentum as it buries Trump-Vance. Vote! Vote!! Vote!!!