Today’s projected Electoral College Vote is: Harris-Walz 227… Trump-Vance 188… and Toss-Up 123!
With three weeks to go, that’s really a sea change. Wisconsin moves from Harris 2.5% or More Over the Plurality Threshold in the Harris States to Trump & Harris Below the Threshold but Running Neck and Neck in the Toss-Up column; four polls released in the last week show a 1 or 2 point margin for the Harris-Walz ticket.
But the wildest swing in the last week has been in Florida. Due to the NYT/Sienna poll of -14% and the Marist poll of -4%, the Sunshine State moves from a Trump State to Above the Threshold in the Toss-Up column. And since Governor Ron DeSantis will appoint the state’s slate of electors, that raises two incredibly tough questions.
What if DeSantis — or New York Governor Kathy Hochul, for example — does not sign and seal their state’s Certificates of Ascertainment on December 11, 2024? Would that trigger a contingent election?
We know the Trump’s fake elector scheme and his J6 insurrection were designed to delay the counting of electoral votes by the Congress. But would 30 or 28 ‘missing’ electoral votes send the presidential election off to the House of Representatives? Yes, under either scenario, no candidate could reach the requisite 270 Electoral College Votes.
POSSIBILITY OF A CONTINGENT ELECTION
When I went to hear Liz Chaney’s new book talk on December 13, 2023, she spoke about the threat of a contingent election. She was worried that the House of Representatives would end up deciding the 2024 presidential election. And she was right to worry.
Back in late 2023, twenty-six state delegations were dominated by MAGA members. That simple majority could and would elect Trump president — if no clear winner emerged during the certification of the Electoral College votes or if chaos took over that administrative count.
Democrats dominated only thirteen state delegations. BUT if they could flip (or save) one seat in thirteen more states during the 2024 congressional elections, they still would be in the game.
And, if the DCCC could squeeze one more seat out of North Carolina, Kansas and Montana, Democrats might even win a contingent election. A tall order but…
That was then. Now the Cook Political Report lists:
Lean Democratic: MN-02, NV-03, OR-06, PA-17, VA-07
Democratic Toss Up: AK AL, CO-08, MI 07, MI 08, NC 01, PA-07, PA-08
Republican Toss Up: AZ-01, AZ-06, IA-01, IA-03, OR-05
Lean Republican: MI-10, MT-01, PA-10, VA-02.
Those twenty-one congressional races would have a direct impact on a contingent election. Montana’s delegation could flip from red to blue. Alaska, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Virginia’s delegations could flip from blue to red. Worse still, Colorado could tie 4-4 and Oregon could tie 3-3.
So many variables. So many outcomes. So many flips of a coin.
But there was once a bright side to all the possible permutations. Of those 21 congressional races, 14 are found in mega-Democratic states where the higher the turnout the better the odds of winning those seats become.
Even better, in those four competitive categories of the Cook Political Report, 16 more congressional races are in mega-Democratic states. That includes six in California; four in New York; two in Ohio: and one each in New Jersey, Texas, Wisconsin, and Washington.
If only the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could convince the Wizards in Wilmington and Washington to have Vice President Harris spend a couple days in California, Washington, and Oregon; Presidents Obama and Clinton do the same in Illinois, New York, and New Jersey; Governor Walz take a spin through Florida and Illinois; and Liz Chaney and Taylor Swift target Texas, we might win the Speaker’s gavel in the House of Representatives, retain control of the Senate (albeit narrowly), deny Trump an Electoral College victory, and, if worse came to worse, we could win a contingent election.
Wishful thinking? Absolutely.
Inane? Not at all.
Because in what looks to be the chaos of an incredibly narrow popular vote and seven state’s Electoral College votes won or lost by a percentage point or less, it would be wise to have a Plan B ready.
Otherwise, as Trump and Musk constantly remind us, we may never have to vote again.
Vote! Vote!! Vote!!!