Today’s projected Electoral College Vote is: Harris-Walz 227… Trump-Vance 218… and Toss-Up 93.
BUT, BUT there are a few numbers that you should memorize. Future Forward, the Harris-Walz aligned superPAC, is sitting on $700 million dollars. Or $100 million per battleground state. And that’s $5 million per state per day for television and social media ads!!!
Right now, even before that $700 million begins to flow, Harris-Walz is above the Plurality Threshold in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina. If those leads are protected, then their 50 ECVs move from Toss-Up to Harris States and — wait, wait, wait for it — 277 ECVs and the WIN!!!
In Wisconsin and Nevada, both Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance are below the Plurality Threshold But Running Neck and Neck. That’s actually one of my categories! And Trump leads by 3% in their most recent polls. But neither state is a done deal.
So if Future Forward wants to blow the doors off the Electoral College, then bet another hundred million on Nevada and Wisconsin. That ought to make the final tally 293 ECVs to 245 ECVs.
And if Future Forward still cannot spend all of its $700 million, I could use what ever is left over. Not for me personally, but to increase the raw vote margins in some of the sixteen mega-Democratic states that aren’t named Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
You see, California is running 900,000 votes behind its net margin in 2020, Massachusetts is trailing its net margin by 270,000 votes, Maryland and Oregon are, too, but by only 218,000 votes each. New York, Illinois, Colorado, and Minnesota are matching what they did in 2020, roughly, but that’s not good enough to soundly defeat Trump-Vance in the popular vote.
So, if Future Forward can spare a few more dimes — say, $10 million per state — down ballot Democrats could use some love in Texas, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. And maybe in New Jersey and Virginia but there are no recent published polls for those two states.
I know, I know. $700 million an embarrassment of riches. But wouldn’t y’all prefer to win the Electoral College Vote, the popular vote by more than Biden-Harris did, retain control of the Senate, elect the Speaker of the House by more than a couple of votes, pick up a few governors mansions (just for Tim Walz), and add more than a few state senate and assembly seats?
Y’all ought to be hearing the roar of an avalanche by now. That’s the sound of 85 million Americans going to vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. And, if spent wisely AND quickly, your $700 million will add mass and speed to that avalanche’s momentum. And rest assured, it will bury Trump-Vance under millions and millions and millions of so-called snowflakes.
Vote! Vote!! Vote!!!